The MotoGP world has been dominated by Marc Marquez for much of 2025. But what happens when the king is dethroned, even temporarily? Marquez is sidelined for at least two rounds, starting with the Australian Grand Prix, due to an injury sustained in a first-lap incident in Indonesia. This opens the door for other riders to seize the opportunity and prove their mettle. But here's where it gets controversial: many assume the obvious replacement is the rider who caused the injury: Marco Bezzecchi.
Given his impressive form in the latter half of the season, Bezzecchi would seemingly be the frontrunner at Phillip Island. However, a double long-lap penalty, levied for his role in the Mandalika crash that injured Marquez, significantly hinders his chances. While a sprint victory remains within reach, securing the Australian GP win will be a formidable challenge. So, the burning question remains: Who is now the favorite to win? Let's dive into the contenders.
Fermin Aldeguer: The Rising Star
Here’s a bold statement: Fermin Aldeguer has a legitimate shot at MotoGP glory. The last rookie to achieve back-to-back wins? None other than Marc Marquez. Aldeguer, brimming with confidence on a track he conquered in Moto2 last year, and piloting a well-sorted bike, possesses a golden opportunity.
Phillip Island should perfectly complement his riding style. This race will be a crucial test: Will his Mandalika performance prove to be a genuine breakthrough, or simply a result of his adept handling of the harder-carcass rear Michelin tire? The argument for a breakthrough lies in his newfound focus on qualifying pace, a strategy implemented for the first time all season in Indonesia. But it also seems significant that Indonesia was his first appearance right at the front since Austria in August - the last time a harder-construction tyre was used.
Another win, or even a near-win, would catapult Aldeguer's trajectory even further. A stumble might be forgiven, given his rookie status, but it could raise questions about his ability to handle pressure. And this is the part most people miss: as a 20-year-old rookie, any missteps can likely be attributed to inexperience, but the scrutiny will intensify with each race.
Alex Marquez: Shadow No More?
Alex Marquez has consistently been the closest challenger to his brother Marc in 2025, finishing second to him a staggering 15 times in sprints and GPs. Therefore, it's logical to assume he's best poised to capitalize on Marc's absence.
However, Alex's Phillip Island record is far from stellar. Injuries in 2024, contact with Jack Miller in 2023, and a crash in his sole other MotoGP appearance in 2022 paint a less-than-ideal picture. This makes him an unlikely favorite for this weekend, a status likely to change at the Sepang race.
Despite his past struggles at this track, Alex is a tenacious rider currently enjoying the best form of his career. This combination could propel him into contention for the win on Sunday, provided circumstances align in his favor.
Pecco Bagnaia: Time to Reclaim the Throne
At the start of the season, most would have confidently predicted Pecco Bagnaia as the automatic favorite whenever Marc Marquez was absent. But pre-season expectations now seem a distant memory, particularly for Bagnaia.
Based on his performance in the last two rounds, Marquez's absence might not impact Bagnaia's results at all. He outperformed Marquez at Motegi (albeit with Marc focused on securing the title), but struggled significantly at Mandalika, requiring multiple retirements ahead of him to even approach the front.
Bagnaia has vehemently denied that Ducati's attention shifting towards Marquez is the root cause of his 2025 struggles. "I think in Motegi everyone was focused on Marc for the title but I won the races," Bagnaia argued. "Honestly I don’t think it’s a matter of focus on me. It’s a matter of how the bike is going. Because the same bike in Motegi was working super-well, and the week after it was not working well. This is the thing that we need to understand."
Having the Ducati garage largely to himself this weekend, with test rider Michele Pirro on Marquez's bike, could yield long-term benefits for Bagnaia. With the crucial post-Valencia test, which marks the beginning of the 2026 season, only a month away, any influence Bagnaia can exert, any evidence he can provide to demonstrate his capabilities when the bike performs as desired, could prove decisive for next year.
But here's where it gets controversial... The flip side of this scenario is even more significant. If the factory Ducati team falters without Marquez, it could spell trouble for Bagnaia and Ducati's long-term partnership.
Fabio Quartararo: The Wild Card
In Fabio Quartararo's own words, the 2025 Yamaha M1 is a 'chef's surprise' – a bike whose performance is unpredictable until he's on the track. Consequently, he's hesitant to make any predictions about his chances of success this weekend.
However, Phillip Island's fast corners (traditionally well-suited to Yamaha's bike), low temperatures, and good grip, evoke shades of his near-success at Silverstone. The positive aspect for Yamaha is that Quartararo's speed often translates to improved performance for his teammates. Jack Miller is racing on home soil, Alex Rins is coming off his best result in months, and Miguel Oliveira (finally securing his 2026 employment) is riding better than he has all season with the pressure off.
While expecting a victory for any of them might be unrealistic, a podium surge for Quartararo on Sunday wouldn't be entirely shocking.
Pedro Acosta: The Unfulfilled Potential
It would be a captivating narrative if Aldeguer's breakthrough win was immediately followed by Pedro Acosta's first, especially after Acosta finished second to his potential future arch-rival in Indonesia.
Despite his immense talent, Acosta's Phillip Island record is surprisingly sparse. A second-place finish in his rookie Moto2 season is the highlight, overshadowed by a crash on the sighting lap in the chaotic 2023 conditions and a heavy crash from 11th in the 2024 sprint race.
Australia 2024 was a generally poor KTM weekend, though. And as usual with this team's traditionally unpredictable form, that probably says absolutely nothing about its 2025 Australia prospects.
It's becoming increasingly perplexing (and frustrating) that Acosta hasn't secured a MotoGP victory yet. Rectifying that here would make for a compelling story.
Johann Zarco: A Familiar Hunting Ground
Johann Zarco has a rich history at Phillip Island. The site of his long-awaited maiden victory in 2023, it's a track where the Frenchman has consistently performed well. 2025 might present another opportunity, given Honda's recent resurgence.
While much of the focus has been on the factory duo of Luca Marini and Joan Mir (both potential dark horses this weekend), this is largely due to new parts being prioritized for their bikes, resulting in an immediate improvement to the RC213V.
Satellite LCR rider Zarco now has access to the same machinery but has taken time to adapt. But now, just as he arrives at one of his favored circuits, that adaptation seems to be complete.
If he is now as comfortable on the upgraded Honda as Mir and Marini, it's entirely conceivable that he'll be in the thick of the fight with the leaders at Phillip Island once again.
So, who do you think will capitalize on Marc Marquez's absence? Which of these riders has the best chance of victory, and why? Do you agree with our assessment of their strengths and weaknesses? Let us know in the comments below!
